I've been chasing these toms since '86 and I still learn every day in the spring turkey woods. I've made every mistake known to man hunting them. Some mistakes many more times than once. I'm convinced now that given a normal spring morning as its getting light, if there's a 2 year old or older tom in hearing range of me, he's gonna gobble at least once before flydown. I'm talking conditions like it's not raining, 30+ mph winds, or complete dense fog as its getting light. I'm also convinced that if brothers from a brood are still alive and running together like 2 year old or older Toms do, every one of them will sound off at least once from the tree. I'm also convinced that the only reason 3 year or older Toms are alone is that he's the only Tom still alive from that brood. What say you?