Poll has Bush winning Electoral College again

Discussion in 'World News / Current Events Forum' started by Drake 224, Feb 19, 2004.

  1. Drake 224

    Drake 224 Elite Refuge Member

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    Long read, just skim it and you will get the feel...Looks good for Republicans.

    New poll with interesting results has Bush winning same "red" states as before with larger margin while still losing blue states but by a smaller margin. Also other interesting statistics as far as how people feel the direction of the country is going. Red states feel we are headed in the right direction. This offsets another article saying Kerry is now ahead by double digits over Bush.:rolleyes:

    http://www.zogby.com/news/021804.html

    Bush Leads in Red States, Kerry Ahead in Blue States
    Voters Hardened on the Economy, War, Gays Marriage

    A new poll conducted by Zogby International for The O’Leary Report and Southern Methodist University’s John Tower Center from February 12-15, 2004 of 1,209 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points found that if the election for president were held today, Democrat John Kerry would edge George W. Bush 46% to 45% in the “blue states” – or states won by Al Gore in the 2000 election. In the “red states,” or states won by George W. Bush in 2000, however, Bush wins handily by a 51% to 39% margin.

    In terms of right direction/wrong direction, blue state voters felt the country was headed in the wrong direction by a 47% to 45% margin while red state voters felt the country was headed in the right direction by a 50% to 40% margin, according to an additional Zogby International/O’Leary Report/John Tower Center survey of Red States/Blue States conducted from February 12-15, 2004 of 532 likely Blue State voters and 543 likely Red State voters with a margin of error of + 4.3 percentage points found that.

    Forty-seven percent of blue state voters rated Bush’s job performance as good or excellent while 51% said the president’s job performance was only fair or poor. Fifty-five percent of red states, however, rated the president’s performance and good or excellent while 45% had a fair or poor opinion of the President’s job performance.

    On the issue of a strong economy and low unemployment versus job creation, Blue State voters who feel a strong economy is a bigger priority than job creation by a 50% to 40% margin while Red State voters also agreed by a 48% to 40% margin a 49% to 40% margin [see attachment for detailed breakdown of results].

    A majority of voters in the survey also reject the filibuster strategy employed by Senate Democrats against some of President Bush’s judicial nominees. This is consistent with polling results under President Clinton when voters rejected Republican efforts to block judicial nominees. Fifty-three percent of Blue State and 59% of Red State voters felt the Democratic filibuster of judicial nominees was wrong while 35% of Blue State and 32% of Red State voters feel a minority of Senators are right to use whatever means to necessary to block the nominees.

    While the issue of gay marriages dominates the news in San Francisco and Boston, a majority of Americans remain opposed to the idea. Fifty-two percent of Red State voters and 50% of Blue State voters support such a constitutional amendment while 43% of Red State voters and 44% of Blue State voters disagree. Voters gave Bush a decided edge when asked who would do a better job of dealing with Al Qaeda, Saddam Hussein, Moammar Gaddafi, North Korea and Iran. Bush was the clear choice among Red State voters (53%) and Blue State votes (47%). Only 31% of Red State voters and 35% of Blue State voters felt Kerry would do a better job in dealing with rogue states and leaders.

    Pollster John Zogby will be presenting these poll results at a meeting of the Wednesday Morning Club at the Beverly Hills Hotel at 1:00 p.m. on Wednesday, February 18, 2004. There will be a press availability at 1:45 p.m. for Los Angeles press.



    ZOGBY/O’LEARY REPORT/JOHN TOWER CENTER SURVEY RESULTS



    Q. “Thinking ahead to when you cast your vote for president in November, which of the following two statements should be a bigger priority: A strong economy marked by sustained growth, low unemployment and a bull stock market or the creation of good-paying jobs in numbers sufficient to erase or surpass the number of jobs lost since 2001.”

    Fifty-seven percent of voters who have a 401-K retirement plan or investment in the stock market feel a strong economy is a higher priority than job creation compared to 33% who felt job creation was a higher priority. A strong economy was a bigger priority even among non-investors. By a 46% to 43%, non-investors also feel a strong economy was more important than job creation. Current members of the military, by a 54% to 40% margin, and veterans, by a 50% to 40% margin, feel a strong economy is a bigger priority than job creation. Those voters who never attend church feel a strong economy is the bigger priority by a 60% to 32% margin while daily and weekly church-goers also feel the economy is a higher priority by margins of 52% to 41% and 56% to 35% respectively. Fifty-three percent of gun owners think a strong economy is the higher priority compared to 38% who favored job creation. Voters who follow NASCAR, high school sports and little league feel a strong economy is a higher priority by a 47 to 41% margin. Non-NASCAR voters also feel a strong economy is more important by similar margins of 48% to 41%.

    Q. “The Constitution provides the president with the power to nominate justices to the federal bench while the U.S. Senate has the power to "advise and consent." In that role, the Senate has always confirmed judicial nominees by a simple majority of votes – a requirement upheld by a Supreme Court ruling. During the Bush presidency, Democrats used, on six occasions, the threat of a filibuster to block confirmation of some of Bush's judicial nominees. The Constitution expressly provides that supermajority voting requirements are to be used for treaties and constitutional amendments. Knowing this, which of the following statements best describes your opinion?”

    Fifty-eight percent of union members, 65% of current military members, 58% of veterans and 68% of gun owners all feel that the Democrat’s filibuster of judicial nominees in the U.S. Senate is wrong and that a simple majority should be used for the confirmation process. Only 25% of current military members, 36% of veterans, and 24% of gun owners think the Democrat’s use of the filibuster to block judicial nominees is okay. There is little difference of opinion among church-goers and non-church-goers on this question. Daily church-goers think the use of the filibuster is wrong by a 66% to 25% margin. Weekly church-goers oppose the use of the filibuster by a 58% to 29% margin. Those who never attend church also agree that the Democrat’s filibuster is wrong by a 61% to 34% margin. Investors in the stock market and in 401-K retirement plans and non-investors, by margins of 57% to 33% and 46% to 43% respectively, feel the use of the filibuster to block judicial nominees is wrong. Fifty-nine percent of NASCAR, high school sports and little league sports fans feel the Democrat’s use of the filibuster to block judicial nominees was wrong compared to 31% who thought the use of such tactics were okay. Non-NASCAR fans also opposed the Democrat’s filibuster by a 53% to 35% margin.

    Q. “The state of Massachusetts now allows gays and lesbians to marry and receive marriage benefits. Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree that this law should be reversed by passing an amendment to the United States Constitution that grants marriage only to unions between a man and a woman?”

    Fifty-one percent of voters agreed that a constitutional amendment should be passed that grants marriage only to unions between a man and a woman while 43% of voters disagreed. Daily and weekly church-goers strongly supported a constitutional amendment to grant marriage only to unions between a man and a woman by margins of 65% to 34% and 60% to 33% respectively. Current military members, by a margin of 59% to 36% agreed that a constitutional amendment was necessary as did veterans who feel the same by a margin of 54% to 42%. Sixty-two% of gun owners favor a constitutional amendment while 34% of gun owners disagree. Investors in the stock market and in 401-K retirement plans and non-investors, by margins of 53% to 43% and 51% to 43% respectively, think a constitutional amendment is necessary. Fifty-three percent of NASCAR, high school sports and little league sports fans agreed that a constitutional amendment is necessary while 45% disagreed. Non-NASCAR fans also agreed that a constitutional amendment is necessary by a 50% to 44% margin.

    Q. Who would do a better job of dealing with Al Qaeda, Saddam Hussein, Moammar Gaddafi, North Korea and Iran? George W. Bush or John Kerry?

    Fifty-percent of voters said Bush would do a better job compared to the 33% of voters who felt John Kerry would do a better job. Fifty-eight percent of current military members and 53% of veterans feel that Bush would do a better job while 32% of current military members and 27% of veterans gave the nod to Kerry. Gun owners and investors by overwhelming margins of 63% to 23% and 58% to 28% respectively, feel Bush would do a better job in dealing with rogue states and leaders. Non-investors also thought Bush would do a better job in dealing with rogue states and leaders by a margin of 48% to 35%. Church-goers and non-church-goers alike thought Bush would do a better job. Daily church-goers and weekly church-goers favored Bush by margins of 57% to 22% and 62% to 21% respectively. Non-church goers also favored Bush to deal with rogue nations and leaders by a 42% to 36% margin. Forty-nine percent of NASCAR, high school sports and little league sports fans think Bush would do a better job of dealing with rogue states and leaders and 33% felt that Kerry was the better choice. Forty-eight percent of non-NASCAR fans also thought Bush would be better to deal with rogue states and leaders while 32% favored Kerry.
     
  2. Ron Gilmore

    Ron Gilmore Elite Refuge Member

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    Zogby is the most accurate polling firm over the last 6 years. He had Kerry very close to the top in IA the only one that asked the staright questions of voters.

    He does not front load his polling data with questions intended to seek a preordained outcome.

    I have looked at his polls for a number of years and found them to be 98% on the money.
     
  3. La. Legend

    La. Legend Elite Refuge Member

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    I look for the polls to change significantly once the Democrats deceide who their candidate will be. Not saying Bush won't still lead but you will see some movement once the uncertainty of the Democratic candidate is resovled. I'm not sure these early polls will carry the weight of the ones that are done just prior to the election. Like most voters I really haven't given it much thought and probably won't until September when both candidates platforms are clearly known.

    Legend
     
  4. Ron Gilmore

    Ron Gilmore Elite Refuge Member

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    To some point you are correct, but tracking polls done in 00 showed that Gore gained very little and GW gained very little overall after the convention. Histroy has shown that the challenger has always polled higher in most years than a sitting Pres. This tends to disapate as the choices square off. We tend to look for a new face but then realize that what is being portraited is seldom what that person has done in the past. History cannot be run away from.

    GW will be able to say I said I would provide XWZ and point to it. The challenger will have to rely on his past actions to cement what he has done. Kerry is weak on this as being a leader. Little important legisaltion that he authored. having watched these Pres campaigns since Nixion and MCgovern I predicted the outcome of all but one. I thought Gore would beat GW because of the economy. Not that I supported Gore.


    The economy is always a factor. But unlike past downturns they did not have the events of 9-11 that will play a role.
     
  5. lad52

    lad52 Elite Refuge Member

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    Zogby was the only one that called the 2000 race correctly. His polling is good because he's unbiased and scientific in his methodology.

    Every other poll right now has Kerry beating GW from 3 to 10 points.

    As far as the economy goes, if that's THE issue, Kerry's in deep crap. The economy is rolling along and doing quite well. Everyone yells about job creation. They're being created at a pretty good clip. Maybe not as fast as some would like, but job creation is a lagging indicator. Always has been, always will be.

    If the war on terror is the issue, Kerry's in deep crap.

    If taxes are the issue, Kerry's in deep crap.

    Legend: do you really wait for September to decide? You don't think the candidate's "platforms" are clearly defined now? The three (let's give edwards the benefit of doubt) are very different politically.

    The two on the left are about as extreme as it gets. Tax and spend libs. GW has been on a spending spree since he got into office... AND IT AIN"T ENOUGH FOR THE DEMS! No rational person would give either kerry or edwards a moments thought as commander in chief... back to the clinton policy of letting law enforcement handle things. Yeah, that worked. Both will work to undermine what's left of America's morality through the appointment of yet more activist judges.

    GW is called an extreme right wing candidate. How? He's pretty much given the dems every friggin thing they want. Kennedy wrote the education bill for gawd sakes. (Doesn't keep him from bitchin about it though.) GW in reality is about where Kennedy was. He's a conservative dem or a liberal republican. Argue all you want about that, but the facts bear the statement out.
     
  6. Drake 224

    Drake 224 Elite Refuge Member

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    Here you go, more good news for Bush. Jobless claim decrease more than anticipated!!! This will only help the republicans if it continues. I want to add one point, the loss of jobs should be reflected on the economic downturn that started prior to Bush taking office. Therefore the arguement that he is resposible for the 2.1 million lost jobs under his watch is misrepresenting reality, IMO. He definately deserves credit for building it back.

    http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,111879,00.html

    Thursday, February 19, 2004

    WASHINGTON — The number of people filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell sharply last week, offering hope that companies may be feeling better about business conditions and less inclined to hand out pink slips.



    The Labor Department (search) reported Thursday that for the work week ending Feb. 14, new applications filed for jobless benefits plunged by a seasonally adjusted 24,000 to 344,000. It marked the largest decline since the beginning of November and left claims at their lowest level since the week ending Jan. 24.

    That was better than economists were expecting. They were forecasting claims to decrease to a level of around 351,000 for last week. Part of last week's decline reflected fewer layoffs in weather-sensitive businesses in some parts of the country that had been previously hard hit by winter's harsh weather, a Labor Department analyst said.

    After hitting a high last year of 459,000 in the middle of April, the number of new jobless claims since then has been drifting downward.

    But even as companies have reduce the speed at which they lay off workers, they haven't been in a rush to hire people back. Job growth has been painfully slow — a sore spot for President Bush.

    Thursday's report also showed that the number of unemployed people collecting jobless benefits for more than a week rose by 106,000 to 3.2 million for the week ending Feb. 7, the most recent period for which that information is available. This suggests that jobs are still hard to find for some workers.

    The report comes as recent Bush administration comments about the job climate touched a political nerve and raise questions about the White House's economic grasp.

    President Bush on Wednesday distanced himself from an earlier prediction by his economic advisors that that the economy would add 2.6 million new jobs this year.

    Before that flap, N. Gregory Mankiw, chairman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers (search), asserted that "outsourcing" American jobs overseas was good for the U.S. economy in the long run. While that comment is consistent with conventional economic thought, it was seen as insensitive to the millions of Americans who can't find a job. Mankiw later apologized and said he had been misunderstood.

    The economy has lost 2.2 million jobs since Bush took office in January 2001. Democrats wanting to win back the White House have sought to highlight the slow job growth under Bush's watch.

    Federal Reserve (search) Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress last week that he is hopeful that companies will step up hiring in the months ahead. Companies may be running out of ways to squeeze ever-more efficiencies out of existing workers and may need to add new ones to meet growing demand, some economists say.
     
  7. Floridaboy

    Floridaboy Moderator Moderator

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    What, no Florida jokes? :D :l
     
  8. lad52

    lad52 Elite Refuge Member

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    Florida jokes...

    Naw, we're waiting for the 2004 elect....

    Oh! There I almost did it!
     
  9. Drake 224

    Drake 224 Elite Refuge Member

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    Na, Florida is the Joke. :p ;) :D

    I have a smile every time I go there.
     

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