Stock market, wonder if the small 401k guys are taking profits after learning a lesson last meltdown

Discussion in 'The Duck Hunters Forum' started by Lip Shooter, Feb 5, 2018.

  1. pintail2222

    pintail2222 Elite Refuge Member

    Messages:
    19,227
    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2002
    Location:
    Collier Co. Florida
    Successful Trades! :tu
     
  2. Lip Shooter

    Lip Shooter Elite Refuge Member

    Messages:
    3,714
    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2014
    Location:
    Bottom of the Slough
    Yeah I averaged a 50% gain, awe shucks I lost 40%, but it is all cool.

    Now the stock market math in reality:

    100k makes 50% in year one so I have a 150k

    I only lost -40% in year 2 so I now have 90k

    But, but, my average rate of return is plus 5%

    This is why Pinny pointed out the proper way to reconcile your true stock market gains.

    Negative returns are bad, very, very bad.
     
    pintail2222 likes this.
  3. WHUP ! Hen

    WHUP ! Hen Elite Refuge Member

    Messages:
    3,316
    Joined:
    Sep 20, 2007
    Location:
    Northeast Missouri
    My guy will visit next Thursday, he has done very well for us. A correction really doesn’t bother me, he’s prepared us for it. We’ve had him for over 20 years, I think that speaks volumes.
     
    pintail2222 likes this.
  4. pintail2222

    pintail2222 Elite Refuge Member

    Messages:
    19,227
    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2002
    Location:
    Collier Co. Florida
    Remember the rule of 72!

    Years required to double investment = 72 ÷ compound annual interest rate



    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/ruleof72.asp
     
  5. TheDuckSlayer

    TheDuckSlayer Elite Refuge Member

    Messages:
    9,476
    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2002
    Location:
    Mobile Delta
    Dave Ramsey says 12% ROI is what people should expect when making long term investments in the market. Is this number realistic or too optimistic considering the S&P has averaged roughly 8% per year since its inception?
     
  6. burgawboy

    burgawboy Elite Refuge Member

    Messages:
    1,320
    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2002
    Location:
    Tarheel Country
    I moved everything on Tuesday to cash equivalents and bonds. I feel good about that decision, cut my loss's early, and going to buy back in when things make a turn. I can't function watching my retirement tank...I was losing my mind.
     
    Lip Shooter and Duckfiend like this.
  7. thatguy2

    thatguy2 Elite Refuge Member

    Messages:
    1,000
    Joined:
    Oct 7, 2013
    Location:
    Small Town USA
    I can get on Fidelity (work 401k) and look to see what funds have averaged better than the market over a ten year period. It takes some time but on a night shift with no work happening it keeps me alert.
     
  8. Lip Shooter

    Lip Shooter Elite Refuge Member

    Messages:
    3,714
    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2014
    Location:
    Bottom of the Slough
    Remember this when doing that. It has been proven that previous performance of a fund has zero indication of future performance.

    I believe the Yale endowment was the study showing this fact. Advisers hate when you ask about it :)
     
  9. HaydenHunter

    HaydenHunter Elite Refuge Member

    Messages:
    9,211
    Joined:
    Dec 4, 2000
    Location:
    Hayden Lake, ID USA
    Really? I thought he was more like 8% is good and 10% is knocking it out of the park. Could be wrong though.
     
  10. Long Shot

    Long Shot Senior Refuge Member

    Messages:
    425
    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2007
    Location:
    Ohio
    The time to figure your rate of return on an investment is when you have the cash in hand.
     
    Lip Shooter likes this.

Share This Page