Stock market, wonder if the small 401k guys are taking profits after learning a lesson last meltdown

Discussion in 'The Duck Hunters Forum' started by Lip Shooter, Feb 5, 2018.

  1. Dek

    Dek Elite Refuge Member

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    One would certainly hope. Pretty tough to goof up last year. As has been said, what you claim is virtually impossible to maintain in the long run, but maybe you'll pull it off!
     
  2. hobbydog

    hobbydog Elite Refuge Member

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    I wonder which one of you spend more time killing ducks and reeling in trophy fish.
     
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  3. pintail2222

    pintail2222 Elite Refuge Member

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    I have started to trade options.

    The issue is emotions get in peoples way of being successful retail traders. They do not have trading rules - or if they do they do not follow them. And they do not practice good money management. Their egos cause them to make stupid mistakes - goof up - they risk to large of a position of their portfolio because they have a good "feeling" about a stock - somebody told them about a stock - Kramer mentioned this stock on his TV show... I have solid trading rules that I stick to like glue. It helps to take the emotion out. It can still feel like I've been punched in the gut when a trade goes against me - but if I am in a losing position I get out and realize the loss quickly. The most I will risk losing on any one trade is 2% of my entire portfolio. It used to be only 1%. My trading rules are an accumulation of lessons I learned the hard way when first paper trading and the trading rules of William O'Neil and Dr. Alexander Elder.
     
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2018
  4. pintail2222

    pintail2222 Elite Refuge Member

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    I fish more here in FL than I did when I lived in MN - and I still hunt in MO, SoDak, NoDak & Sask... All set for snows in early April again.
     
  5. pintail2222

    pintail2222 Elite Refuge Member

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    If you are dollar cost averaging - your $ enters in to your account as cash does it not? And is not converted into a product until you buy it?

    So if in a year your portfolio goes up from $100,000 to $200,000 and then a correction happens and you get out at a 4% loss at $192,000 and are all cash for 2 months while the market goes back down to -40% (Your portfolio would have been worth $120,000 had you stayed in). Isn't your dollar cost averaging going in to your account still going in as cash during those 2 months? And then you buy back @ 4% above the low saving you from having to take a -35% loss of $67,000. $192,000 down to $125,000. And you buy back in with your $192,000 plus the additional dollar cost averaging money that you took in during the 2 months...

    Looks like XIV is the inverse of the VIX. I would never trade either - no matter how small of a position. They are market indicators of volatility.
     
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2018
  6. nick b

    nick b Senior Refuge Member

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    Sure, in that hypothetical situation you come out ahead. You’ve also triggered a capital gains event and would have to pay cap gains on $92,000. Now, I don’t use taxable accounts as I don’t have enough cash flow to max my 403 and 457, so that also changes things, as I just invest with each paycheck. I don’t need the money for 30 years.

    Again...you may win in the specific scenarios you provide but you will not win forever. It’s your money, do with it as you please and it’s clear you have rules and have thought things out but don’t encourage the masses to day trade, it doesn’t end well.
     
  7. bang you'r dead

    bang you'r dead Canada Forum Mod. Eh! Moderator Flyway Manager

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    I hunt ducks 3 or 4 days a week during the season. Most days are limits for ducks, and geese is hit or miss. Best day for two of us in the fall was 112 ducks and geese in a couple of hours (snows, canadas, mallards), so the numbers add up, but our season is short . This year we were frozen out after 2 months. Fishing up here is 12 months a year. Targeting trophy rainbows and brookies right now. Walleyes in a month or so. Hopefully next week, billfish and mahi mahi if things work out ok. Couple weeks in Aruba to warm up the winter a bit.

    My guess is Pin is not lagging in the bird or fish department either. I don't think he is trading 24 hours a day. My commodities guy says he works about an hour a day, and the rest of the day is just patiently watching and waiting from the sidelines.
     
  8. pintail2222

    pintail2222 Elite Refuge Member

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    In a regular traded account - correct. And your broker will generate 1099s for you. With an IRA/401 (k) it is not taxed until you withdraw from the account upon retirement.
     
  9. pintail2222

    pintail2222 Elite Refuge Member

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    I do not trade 24 hours a day - right now I have TOS open on a monitor w/ tastytrade.com airing in the upper left hand window. I usually place my trades in the morning and clean up positions throughout the day if need be. I will place 2 - 15 trades a day depending on the market.
     
  10. HaydenHunter

    HaydenHunter Elite Refuge Member

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    I always contributed to my 401K up to the amount that the company matched. Never more. As a result my 401k is not huge, but neither is it tiny. The rest of my savings went into a sweet plan whereupon I could buy company stock at a discount and sell when I wanted without penalty because it was not a retirement account. It also went into real estate. Add a healthy dose of sweat equity, and a big chunk of my retirement income now comes from rents collected on properties owned free and clear. I understand the pitfalls of buying real estate better than I know how to play markets and funds, so there is more comfort for me on this financial path.

    For those who do not have the desire to learn how to play the markets or the stomach to live through downturns, this alternative method should be considered. It got me to retirement in my early 60s, while keeping my 401k intact for a rainy day.
     
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