All things Corona and COVID-19

Discussion in 'The Duck Hunters Forum' started by threeinchshell, Mar 19, 2020.

  1. threeinchshell

    threeinchshell Refuge Member

    Messages:
    66
    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2019
    Location:
    Eugene, Oregon
    As a data scientist that grew up in rural Arkansas hunting in a cypress swamp behind my house from age 5, I have my share of friends from back home who are too easily fooled about some of "the big things." Things that affect the health and well-being of our family, friends, even things that will affect our grandchildren and their children. Things like, say....a global pandemic.

    If you're reading this and your initial thought is something along the line of "I'ma gone tell this boy what the deal is about this fake coronavirus stuff" you should just stop now. But if you genuinely care about the health and well-being of your family, and are open to possibly learning something new, read on.

    First, the data:

    fatalityrate.jpg

    incubation.jpg

    hospitalization.jpg


    In summary:
    • covid-19 is much worse than the common flu
    • The overall fatality rate is dramatically higher
    • The average incubation period is much longer. This means that people without systems spend far more time interacting with others before they have any symptoms, which leads to a much higher RO (rate of disease spread)
    • The hospitalization rate is much higher. This is what causes huge strain on countries' health care systems, which then has in many cases led to higher fatality rates due to lack of care
    My tips for how you can avoid being fooled about "the big things":
    • Most importantly: do not get your information from a news outlet. Do not get your information from politicians. Do not get your information from talking news heads. Do not get your information from blogs. For the big things, if you really want to know the truth, look at peer-reviewed research and specifically the data provided in that research.
    • Following up on that, because it's so important: politicians are elected by popular vote, thus they are incentivized to say things that are popular. Talking news heads are paid by the number of viewers they get, so they are incentivized to say things that are popular with their viewers. Bloggers and radio talk show hosts earn their money from the number of readers/listeners they get, so they are incentivized to say things that are popular. Look at the data. The data is the only source you can really trust.
    • Second most importantly tip, keep an open mind. If you believe xyz, then are shown clear evidence that xyz is incorrect, genuinely attempt to understand the issue more and realize why you may have been wrong. If you are unwilling to do this, you should right now that you are being fooled, often on a grand scale.
    • If you must read some source of news about "the big things," if you are not willing to look at the original data, then there is one source I would recommend most. The leaders of the US Military. What? Yes, that's right. They are generally not incentivized to say or do what's popular. They are, for the most part, incentivized by looking at the data and facts and determining what the best course of action is. Their training (at the upper levels) is basically "look at what is really happening on the ground, look at the data, and make inferences from the data. F*** everything and everyone else"
     
    WoodieSC, Rebranger, wetdawg and 18 others like this.
  2. Mike0311

    Mike0311 Senior Refuge Member

    Messages:
    192
    Joined:
    Aug 11, 2018
    Way to add to the hysteria dude..
     
  3. Steelshot Scott

    Steelshot Scott Elite Refuge Member

    Messages:
    1,219
    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2012
    Location:
    NC
    As if there weren't enough people running around with their hair on fire.
     
    WHUP ! Hen likes this.
  4. threeinchshell

    threeinchshell Refuge Member

    Messages:
    66
    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2019
    Location:
    Eugene, Oregon
    It's not my problem if adults have such a problem looking at and analyzing data that they get "hysteric." These are the people that most need to learn to read and analyze data.
     
  5. threeinchshell

    threeinchshell Refuge Member

    Messages:
    66
    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2019
    Location:
    Eugene, Oregon
    These types of comments are useless. If you something in my data is wrong, do tell me. Otherwise, you're just blowing smoke to make yourself feel important.
     
  6. Dr Duk

    Dr Duk Senior Refuge Member

    Messages:
    736
    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2019
    Location:
    Colorado Springs, Co
    If it is on the Internet, it must be true!!
     
  7. Grif

    Grif Senior Refuge Member

    Messages:
    481
    Joined:
    Dec 16, 2019
    Your 1st and 3rd tables are flawed.....and as a scientist you know that.

    The death rate continues to drop as more people are tested......you know that too.

    Many of the folks who head to the hospital wouldn't even think of it without all of this craziness....you are helping to create that.

    Here, another scientists opinion.....

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17...e-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/
     
  8. threeinchshell

    threeinchshell Refuge Member

    Messages:
    66
    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2019
    Location:
    Eugene, Oregon
    You're exactly right, this is the problem! Look at the data yourself. Fyi, the data in my graphs above is widely available to the public, from many many different sources.
     
  9. Steelshot Scott

    Steelshot Scott Elite Refuge Member

    Messages:
    1,219
    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2012
    Location:
    NC
    You know what is useless? The world is on fire. People are fist fighting over toilet paper. There is no food on the shelves. There is a run on guns and ammo. All the cable news is covering COVID-19 24/7.

    You want to make sure that everyone is terrified.

    We will get by this. The death rate is less than 2% and the majority of that is people over 75 with underlying health issues. When warm weather hits, we will see this drop off. We need to stay calm, practice the protocols that the White House and the CDC want us to do and just act like we are not all idiots.

    Or, we could keep stoking the hysteria.
     
  10. threeinchshell

    threeinchshell Refuge Member

    Messages:
    66
    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2019
    Location:
    Eugene, Oregon
    Nope. I want people to have and use the data. Notice how nowhere in my post did I say anything like "panic now!" or "go buy toilet paper!" or even "don't go outside!" There is absolutely no reason, in my opinion, to panic, or hoard food, etc. The data show that social distancing and temporary isolation work extremely well.

    What did I say? I said "if you want to know the truth of things, you should look at the data; here's why, and here's a little bit of how"

    You yourself are making the assumption that by providing data, I somehow want to stoke fear and hysteria. You think this, because this is what some news outlet told you to think about people like me. There is absolutely nothing in my post that says anything about panic or hoarding or end of world. You made that all up in your head, which just goes to show how averse to the truth -- when it disagrees with what you already believe -- that you are.

    By simply providing the data, you assume my goal is xyz. Astounding.
     
    Rebranger, thebiggrfigr, Jere and 6 others like this.

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.
    Dismiss Notice