Did anybody attend the DNR public discussion meeting?

Discussion in 'Chesapeake Flyway Forum' started by Trevor Shannahan, Mar 7, 2019.

  1. slacktide

    slacktide Elite Refuge Member

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    Thank you for the information Ungavawatcher. From what I can gather from the data is the greatest correlation of all data
    is dependent on the overall temperature... All the graphs directly correlate to the temperature: Higher temperature, higher young/adult ratio and higher
    breeding pair count...

    My question is, and it is not trying to be a difficult one, is that if the geese can be short stopped on their migration route by more favorable habitat/temperatures, or even hunting pressure, wouldn't they consider that possibility of not returning to the same breeding ground year after year of failure? In essence, are the Ungava breeding geese giving up on being Ungava breeding geese and morphing into other populations? I am all for protecting the "resource" but are we sure that the resource hasn't bailed on us?

    My other question is regarding band data. Over the years, I have been fortunate to harvest perhaps 6 banded Canada geese ( a really, really low rate of recoveries considering the amount of geese that I have harvested). They were equally distributed from being banded in a remote eskimo sounding villages and Blackwater NWR. First, I guess we assume that the Blackwater geese are part of the AP population by association. I anticipate that since they were banded on the Eastern Shore, they definitively winter on the Shore...Do they band (AP) geese in New York and Pennsylvania, and do they get the majority of the band returns of those birds in those areas ( or are the NY/PA being harvested on the Shore in November which would indicate a migratory "urge" as opposed to a survival migration as happens when the northern states freeze out) ..I have never seen nor heard of a neck collared AP Canada goose in my 40 years of bird watching and hunting on the Eastern Shore... how do we know which geese fly where? It was my understanding that the Lake Mattamusket - North Carolina Geese were short stopped on the Eastern Shore, yet a small segment of migratory birds still makes it there annually - I assume from some descendants still make that journey since that is what they know... Could it be that we on the Eastern Shore are doing a great job of wiping out the geese that instinctively migrate to the shore. The dismal amount of birds that we saw this year might be all that is left of the "shore" geese, and thus our population only spikes when the cold weather pushes other populations into our area for survival. As a young man, I lived outside of Chestertown, and annually the first geese showed up on our farm within one day of September 8th; year in and year out - true migration urges ( lunar) and not temperature dependent... By early October we had a substanital population of geese everywhere. Now, the first geese may start arriving in late September, but usually in small numbers until the end of October..... Something has changed....

    My thinking is that the USFW is doing a great job of counting birds, but may be missing the bigger picture as migrations have morphed.. is there anyway of tracking these migrations...perhaps DNA testing of Ungava breeding pairs to establish those traits versus other populations and see where/how they disperse? Just a thought.
     
  2. Trevor Shannahan

    Trevor Shannahan Elite Refuge Member

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    I’ve been saying this ever since last years counts came out. I highly doubt every single bird is going to go back to Ungava if it’s unfit to nest in.

    Biologists will disagree, but I can guarantee you a significant amount of the AP short stopped the reverse migration and nested in southern Canada last year.
     
  3. Montauker

    Montauker Elite Refuge Member

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    I love when Trevor disputes an entire class of people who study an issue and then makes a definitive statement to the contrary.

    Do you spend a lot of nights at Holiday Inn Express?
     
  4. mdmallard

    mdmallard Senior Refuge Member

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    I'd assume your blackwater banded goose was an RP goose, not AP. Most geese are banded when they are molting and can't fly or young and can't fly.
     
  5. mdmallard

    mdmallard Senior Refuge Member

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    How can you guarantee that?
     
  6. Trevor Shannahan

    Trevor Shannahan Elite Refuge Member

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    It’s pretty much common sense. But aside from that, there is precedent of accepted science being proven wrong and changed time and again. Is it really unfathomable to think there could be a shift in the nesting ground for a portion of the AP, even if it was only temporary(ie on late cold springs)? I think the automatic and absolute rejection of the premise by experts is both laughable and sad.
     
  7. Montauker

    Montauker Elite Refuge Member

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    What is common sense? Per your theory of short- stopping migration to nesting grounds, then why migrate at all? I'm not saying that your theory isn't feasible, I find it laughable and sad that you make a guarantee like that with little data to back it up.
     
  8. Trevor Shannahan

    Trevor Shannahan Elite Refuge Member

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    The common sense part of it is pretty simple really. The birds have shown adaptations in travel patterns, wintering grounds, etc in the past. Animals have a survival instinct, some more developed than others even inside of their own species. Why wouldn’t some stay south of untenable weather on a bad nesting year?
     
  9. Dirtybird420

    Dirtybird420 Elite Refuge Member

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    I thought they where shortstopping their southerly migration. Now they’re northerly one to. Good god. I’d just give up on the geese at this rate.
     
  10. Trevor Shannahan

    Trevor Shannahan Elite Refuge Member

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    Doubt they do it every year, or even very often at all. Only in an extreme circumstance like last year would I see them doing it. I also don’t think it’s a majority of birds doing it, but I do think it’s a noticeable amount, say maybe 10-30k breeding pairs.

    I just think it’s silly that every biologist I’ve talked to says it’s impossible that they are doing that. If they wanted to say it’s doubtful or unlikely I would be fine with that, but every statement I’ve ever gotten is that it is definitively not happening.
     

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