duck numbers

mudhen

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Terrible numbers…

Take out the bwt increase, and it’s even worse…

I’ll support any reasonable restrictions until figures improve!
 

DERODOM

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There is a 2 year gap in the numbers (due to Covid). Definitely a bad trend, but Year Over Year could be less drastic than the numbers illustrate.
 

David O

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^. Agreed Dom

David
 

fugewrk55

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i don't care what government agency it is

don't ever believe "they're" numbers


regardless, for every duck they count, how many didn't they see?
 

Dan Yparraguirre

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are breeding pintail from Alaska included in the Prairie counts and Pintail that overfly the prairies in drought years? i was told they were not included in these counts. If i am wrong please correct me
Maybe it's a nuance.

The "traditional survey area" has been sampled since 1955 (see page 1 of USFWS report linked to in the DU article): "The traditional survey area (strata 1–18, 20–50, and 75–77) comprises parts of Alaska, Canada, and the northcentral U.S", and the results from the TSA have been consistently reported for 65 years. Look at the FWS report Table 2 on page 7 and the TSA is reported separately from "new" areas where the FWS has incorporated additional survey data into the decision-making processes,

When the prairies are dry, overflight of pintail to AK is reflected to some extent in AK numbers and has long been documented in the scientific literature. Given that, it is reasonable to assume birds also settle out of the TSA, especially in drought years; however, obviously, the number of birds in un-surveyed areas must be unknown. One might look at mallard numbers in the west to see at least a hint of a trendm when lower mallard number in CA tend to occur when mallard numbers in OR are higher - just an observation, not a cause-effect "fact" backed by analysis.

It's a big continent, and it's tempting to always say birds must be in areas where counts don't occur when numbers are low, but if some birds are in un-surveyed areas when numbers in surveyed areas are lower, isn't it likely that there were at least some birds in un-surveyed areas when numbers were higher? Take a look at the figure 1 on the FWS report on page 2 and think about the habitat in the un-surveyed areas.

The NA waterfowl survey is said to be the largest and longest-running wildlife survey in the world (might be the most expensive too?) - but it's fair to say it's not perfect and the resources to improve it in a meaningful way are not likely forth coming.

At some point the numbers have to be used, or not collected - our focus might be better used if we consider how the numbers drive decisions. From this old, retired guy, I'd rather see numbers collected in a systematic fashion than models fueled by models of numbers of ducks....
 

thekillerofmallard

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my response here is really, really stupid... (naive, simplistic, not useful, dumb.... but hey its hot out)
but the harvest of ducks in the US is estimated to be about 10 million per year....
harvest report see page 25

I've heard since I started hunting in 65 that take has no effect on population. They have it all figured out. Yeah I've had two Jameson so my judgment might be impaired. Hahaha
 

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