Feds Say No Mid Winter Bird Counts

Discussion in 'Arkansas Flyway Forum' started by La. Legend, Jan 13, 2004.

  1. stevena198301

    stevena198301 Elite Refuge Member Supporting Member

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    Anyone who keeps good records care to equate how your numbers stacked up against these years? Chart toward the bottom illustrates whether El Niño or La Niña, and intensity by year. Go back as far as you can. Numbers killed/observed each year, and what the conditions were.

    https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm
     
  2. ED Vanderbeck

    ED Vanderbeck Elite Refuge Member

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    2000 was best year ever here for me we had snow but north was covered up with tons of it birds were here by the tens of thousands to 100's of thousands, we shot 352 canadas 3 man limit a day 1735 snows and 400 mallards what a year the shell bill about killed my budget but it was a la nina year. Once in a lifetime year for sure
     
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  3. hhpage

    hhpage Senior Refuge Member

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    So I have detailed kill records going back to the 2002-2003 season in a digital format. I took a look at my average kill per trip numbers (this standardizes data for differences in number of hunters per day and number of days per season). There is a clear pattern relative to El Nino/La Nina. In La Nina years, my kill/trip averaged 67.5% higher than in El Nino years. In years where there was neither a La Nina or El Nino, my kill/trip averaged 46.7% higher than in El Nino years.

    There is also a pretty clear trend based on the relative strength of the El Nino/La Nina, but my data series is not long enough to say anything other than kill/trip tended to increase as the strength of El Nino decreased and as La Nina increased. My highest average kill/trip was in strong La Nina years and trended downwards in an almost linear fashion as La Nina weakened.

    I also plotted this data using the season's average hunt temperature (average of beginning temp and ending temp for each hunt) as the x-axis. There is a strong downwards linear trend as temperature increases. This means that colder years saw better kill rates in general. This relationship is actually even stronger than it appears in my data, since during extremely cold years I tend to hunt afternoons much more often, while in warmer years most of my hunt temperatures reflect morning lows.
     
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  4. TheDuckSlayer

    TheDuckSlayer Elite Refuge Member

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    you scienced the **** out of duck killin

    gotta be an engineer
     
  5. stevena198301

    stevena198301 Elite Refuge Member Supporting Member

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    I dig it!
     
  6. hhpage

    hhpage Senior Refuge Member

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    :) I'm a forester with a whole lot of statistics training and an analytical background. Numbers is pretty much what I do, and I'm somewhat OCD about it lol
     
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  7. hhpage

    hhpage Senior Refuge Member

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    Oh, and it does not help in duck killin at all!!
     
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