I believe it is a safe bet that “within two years” we are going to wake up and find out we are in a war with two of the three nuclear superpowers.

[Bear]

An excellent contribution @rhpierce.

There are some historical precedents that may be repeating themselves.

Some of them involve the Roman empire; however, that is far too much to discuss right now.

As far as a Chinese invasion perhaps we need to consider that we already have been.

This Biden open borders policy has allowed an army of potential infiltrators and sappers into our country. People may say that that is Hispanics. Hispanics can’t have communist ideologies?

Does anyone that anyone that took a history course that taught real history remember the Zimmerman Telegram?

The Chinese and the Russians wouldn’t need to attack as an army to cause us some real trouble. We’ve already seen what sapper like individuals could do to our unprotected power grids. What about our pipeline grid? We would have to pull back and leave our Nat Guard to even hope to somewhat protect it.

Does anyone remember when the terrorists attacks started about tennish years ago.

We had NatGuard troops with full guard duty combat equipment blocking the entrance to our NatGuard Division headquarters just down the road from us. I believe it is the 36th Division.

Does anyone remember how Castro took over Cuba? He was a Guerrilla fighter originally. As he took over a region he went after the children in the schools for indoctrination. Not the adults, the kids. Trying to destroy their moral fiber.

Sound familiar?

Again, thanks for your contribution with analysis.

Bear

IMO

 

[Ruination]

You're such a doomer Bear.

GenZ rubbin off on you.

 

[Goosekiller]

It's coming, we're on that road. Look at history, ww1 and ww2 didn't happen over night. Lot of events led to them. We're seeing the events today led to ww3. Get ready we're going to fight Russia, China, and Iran.

 

[Bear]

You're such a doomer Bear.

GenZ rubbin off on you.

Communism and resistance to American Exceptionalism rubbing off on you?

 

[Damian Wiening]

Sorry, I saw a blurb somewhere that ammo manufacturers were behind in their production for the military. And while that doesn't necessarily equate to inadequate supply, it wouldn't take long to be in that situation if things go south. Things like powder and primers may still be bottlenecks.

After what the President did to the oil reserves, you really think they are doing their jobs in keeping the military stocked at adequate levels? We are short on manpower and more worried about everyone being respectful of everyone's mental illnesses than of creating warfighters. We kicked people out for not getting the vaccine; the people who should be in the best physical shape, the most capable, the most resistant...

China doesn't have to get in a war with us. They will take us over without firing a shot because they have our IOU's, copy our tech, buy our farmland, and let us worry about problems that don't matter (pronouns and TikTok) while they play out a 500-year strategy. Our government "changes" every 4 years - there is no long-term thinking capability in that regard, save for bureaucracy, which exists only to exert pressure on the citizens. They stay consistent (right or wrong) for decades. They don't want us dead, unless we do a 180 and get back to the business of being an actual superpower...right now we are like one of those zombie bugs that the bacteria infects and takes over. I would be more worried about nukes from them, because somewhere, someone over there believes there is a scenario that China could win in a nuclear exchange. They believe they have enough people and land mass that they could deal with 100 years of isolation and kill everyone but themselves and come out on top. I guarantee there is a folder somewhere over there with that scenario in it.

If they wanted to invade, could they? They could use the Russian strategy of just throwing millions of bodies into the grinder, and I don't know if we have enough bullets, but it would get ugly if they set foot on American soil. I did see mention somewhere of Chinese illegal immigration and the theory that they would form cells within the US that would be able to counter civilian resistance, but again, an invasion would come at a huge cost. And they would have to take into account the military personnel in bases around the world.

Russia? They could lob some nukes, maybe, but they know that will trigger a massive response that they cannot survive. After Ukraine, I don't think they want a conventional war with the US. If they are truly as uncoordinated and in the shape as indicated by their Ukrainian campaign, anything on their part seems pretty futile. Tom Clancy is probably looking down from heaven thankful that he made as much money as he did off of what is proving to be less than a worthy opponent and glad he doesn't have to try and write anything now.

But that's my opinion.

The only problem is their birth rate, 100 years might be a stretch,

Demographics of China - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Ruination]

Communism and resistance to American Exceptionalism rubbing off on you?

Da comrade.

Thank you for being unemployed and exceptional.

 

[rhpierce]

The only problem is their birth rate, 100 years might be a stretch,

Demographics of China - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Maybe so, and that is a good point. That may well be a factor in a nuke attack that has changed, even though I feel certain someone over there at some point believed they had a winning nuclear war strategy, maybe as little as five years ago.

They still have 1.4 billion and can throw a lot of lives away, leaving them with more resources per surviving person. They have to insure that the overwhelming majority are of child bearing age, but they have never been squeamish about killing their own.

 

[Clark]

Do you really believe we have, we have a huge stockpile ready to use if needed and is getting refreshed with new and improved equipment.

If anything the UKR conflict shows how fast you can use up stock in a non nuclear fight, it's our government's job to maintain a more than necessary supply.

Appears I'm not the only one concerned... and if assuring an adequate stockpile is the "Government's job" then I know I'm worried.
The propaganda I see about Ukraine suggests that Ukraine is materially hampered by a shortage of 155mm shells, the US presently produces just about enough to cover our own needs, and ramping up production will take years. If we get serious now, I think we will be OK - in 5 years or so.

AP - March 30, 2023
Army Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
WASHINGTON — The U.S. military "has a long ways to go" to beef up its munitions stockpiles and ensure the country is ready for any large-scale war, the top U.S. military officer told Congress on Wednesday.

Army Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the war in Ukraine has underscored the heavy use of munitions that is required during any major conflict.

He and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin faced repeated questioning from members of Congress this week about the impact the war is having on the Pentagon, as it supplies Ukraine with much of the ammunition it needs to fend off the Russian forces.

They, and senior Army leaders, said the conflict has pushed the U.S. to increase production rates and re-evaluate how much of a stockpile is really needed as tensions with China and Russia continue to rise.

"If there was a war on the Korean peninsula or great power war between the United States and Russia or the United States and China, the consumption rates would be off the charts," Milley said in testimony to the House Armed Services Committee on Wednesday. "So I'm concerned. I know the secretary is ... we've got a ways to go to make sure our stockpiles are prepared for the real contingencies."

He said Austin directed the military to conduct a complete review of all its war plans and assess the munitions estimates, which can then form the basis for future budget requests.

The Pentagon is requesting $30 billion in the 2024 fiscal year budget to invest in the industrial base and to "buy the maximum number of munitions that American industry can produce," Austin said during the same hearing.

In testimony earlier this week, Army Secretary Christine Wormuth told lawmakers that right now the Army is "comfortable that the amount of lethal assistance we've been providing is not eroding our readiness, but we keep a close eye on that."

A key concern is the 155 mm ammunition. The U.S. has sent Ukraine 160 howitzers and more than 1 million of the 155 mm howitzer rounds. The munitions have been put to heavy use with as many as 3,000 rounds fired a day, according to the Pentagon.

Wormuth, who visited the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant in Pennsylvania where the shell casings for the rounds are made, said the service asked for $1.5 billion in the budget to be able to shore up that production. She said the U.S. would like to increase production from about 20,000 shells a month to 75,000 a month by 2025.

"We are working very closely with industry to try to do everything we can to help make it easier for them to increase both the volume of their production but also the speed of their production," she said.

Asked about the impact on American troops, Gen. James McConville, chief of staff of the Army, said the military goes through about 150,000 rounds a year for training — or roughly 14,000 a month.

Another pressure point is ammunition for the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System, which the U.S. is also sending to Ukraine. Wormuth said the U.S. is working to increase production from about 6,000 a year to 15,000 a year.

Austin and Wormuth also said the Pentagon is hoping that Congress will allow it to do multi-year procurement plans in order to save money and provide stability for the industry.

 

[Damian Wiening]

Appears I'm not the only one concerned... and if assuring an adequate stockpile is the "Government's job" then I know I'm worried.
The propaganda I see about Ukraine suggests that Ukraine is materially hampered by a shortage of 155mm shells, the US presently produces just about enough to cover our own needs, and ramping up production will take years. If we get serious now, I think we will be OK - in 5 years or so.

AP - March 30, 2023
Army Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
WASHINGTON — The U.S. military "has a long ways to go" to beef up its munitions stockpiles and ensure the country is ready for any large-scale war, the top U.S. military officer told Congress on Wednesday.

Army Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the war in Ukraine has underscored the heavy use of munitions that is required during any major conflict.

He and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin faced repeated questioning from members of Congress this week about the impact the war is having on the Pentagon, as it supplies Ukraine with much of the ammunition it needs to fend off the Russian forces.

They, and senior Army leaders, said the conflict has pushed the U.S. to increase production rates and re-evaluate how much of a stockpile is really needed as tensions with China and Russia continue to rise.

"If there was a war on the Korean peninsula or great power war between the United States and Russia or the United States and China, the consumption rates would be off the charts," Milley said in testimony to the House Armed Services Committee on Wednesday. "So I'm concerned. I know the secretary is ... we've got a ways to go to make sure our stockpiles are prepared for the real contingencies."

He said Austin directed the military to conduct a complete review of all its war plans and assess the munitions estimates, which can then form the basis for future budget requests.

The Pentagon is requesting $30 billion in the 2024 fiscal year budget to invest in the industrial base and to "buy the maximum number of munitions that American industry can produce," Austin said during the same hearing.

In testimony earlier this week, Army Secretary Christine Wormuth told lawmakers that right now the Army is "comfortable that the amount of lethal assistance we've been providing is not eroding our readiness, but we keep a close eye on that."

A key concern is the 155 mm ammunition. The U.S. has sent Ukraine 160 howitzers and more than 1 million of the 155 mm howitzer rounds. The munitions have been put to heavy use with as many as 3,000 rounds fired a day, according to the Pentagon.

Wormuth, who visited the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant in Pennsylvania where the shell casings for the rounds are made, said the service asked for $1.5 billion in the budget to be able to shore up that production. She said the U.S. would like to increase production from about 20,000 shells a month to 75,000 a month by 2025.

"We are working very closely with industry to try to do everything we can to help make it easier for them to increase both the volume of their production but also the speed of their production," she said.

Asked about the impact on American troops, Gen. James McConville, chief of staff of the Army, said the military goes through about 150,000 rounds a year for training — or roughly 14,000 a month.

Another pressure point is ammunition for the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System, which the U.S. is also sending to Ukraine. Wormuth said the U.S. is working to increase production from about 6,000 a year to 15,000 a year.

Austin and Wormuth also said the Pentagon is hoping that Congress will allow it to do multi-year procurement plans in order to save money and provide stability for the industry.

When Ukraine pushes out the RU forces we may not need s much 155 mm munitions, at least not for the RU.

 

[3B209]

We are in a war already, a class war. A financial war. Normal logic is deemed "extreme". Patriotic vets (mike glover comes to mind) labeled as promoting domestic terrorism.

Stop asking when imo, and start asking "how many of my friends and family could i adequately arm." Then train. Not shooting clays or dumping mags or bench shooting. But actual instruction by people worth a crap. I think this is what is overlooked most by people who see the "signs". Speaking generally, not to anyone directly in comments btw.