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Nesting Conditions Update?

Discussion in 'Snow Goose Hunting Forum' started by CSUguy, Jun 18, 2019.

  1. rdj.olympia

    rdj.olympia Senior Refuge Member

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    I also pulled these 2 pictures off of that link. Lots of juvies. Interesting that one of the pictures there are few blues and the other picture has more. snow goose pictures 2.JPG snow goose pictures 3.JPG
     
  2. Ronno

    Ronno Senior Refuge Member

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    The age ratios being reported out of Karrak Lake/Queen Maud Gulf are dismal. .04 for Ross and .08 for Snows meaning less than 10% young in the flight originating from there. I am aware this is only one area, but not good news.
     
  3. 870

    870 Senior Refuge Member

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    Thanks for the update...… That makes sense when you look at the seasonal temp map (page 6 in this thread). The Queen Maud Waterfowl sanctuary is along the coast north of Yellowknife in a blue (below seasonal) part of the map. When I saw that, I was wondering if the Queen Maud may have some issues this year. Just the same, 8% juvie snows is lot higher than we saw last season,, a lot of the flocks we saw come through last fall were 1 - 2% at best.

    We always dissect the flock for juvies when we scout. Most years, there can be a very wide variation in the juvie count between the different feeding flocks even coming off the same roost. We have no hard data to support this, but it has been our impression that colonies tend to feed together even when you have several different colonies on the same roost,,,, at least that is our explanation for why the birds can fly off in different flight paths to feed over several different fields.
     
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  4. CSUguy

    CSUguy Senior Refuge Member

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    Ronno, do you have more details or a source on that age ratio data? The Karrak report that I saw this week said, "It was indeed a late year. And a fair bit of precipitation during nesting and brood-rearing. Despite this, there were some goslings around during banding."
    Thanks!
     
  5. possumfoot

    possumfoot Elite Refuge Member

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    reports im getting are conflicting, but mostly very positive.
     
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  6. Dean Nelson

    Dean Nelson Moderator Goose Hunting/North Dakota Moderator

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    By the wording of that it looks like they are saying the same thing.
     
  7. possumfoot

    possumfoot Elite Refuge Member

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    might want to look a bit closer.. i think QM is normal
     
  8. 870

    870 Senior Refuge Member

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    Not wanting to nit pick, but the QM sanctuary is on the mainland. Karak Lake is pretty much straight south of the eastern tip of Victoria Island and according to the seasonal temp map the western part of the Sanctuary is definantly in a blue zone with the Karrak Lake likely being very close to the boundary area between white and blue zones.
     
  9. JRS

    JRS Elite Refuge Member

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    SHAMELESSLY COPIED FROM THAT SNOW GOOSE HUNTING FORUM THAT I KNOW MANY OF YOU ARE ON-




    "As you know, productivity conditions for these species at Karrak Lake south of Queen Maud Gulf (QMG) can be used to predict their age ratios in the fall when they move through Saskatchewan and on south. With that in mind, many folks have been asking “what was the hatch like?”.

    Trouble is, because of evidence of phenological mismatch, some recent advancement of spring melt, high population densities, vegetation alteration, declining body condition of adults arriving to nest, and some unusually unfavorable weather during gosling growth, it has become difficult to predict what the age ratios during the fall flight are going to be, just from nest success. For example, you could have a really great hatch and still end up with virtually no goslings if weather conditions during gosling growth (between hatch and banding/fledging) are really bad for downy goslings (i.e., high winds, sustained heavy rains, and cooler temperatures). For that reason, we wait until banding in August to know what pre-fledging age ratios are from captures made by banders near Karrak Lake, since these correlate well with age ratios of live Snow and Ross’s geese in Saskatchewan during September and October.

    Based on August age ratios, just reported to me by Kiel Drake of .07 goslings per adult Ross’s goose and .08 goslings per adult snow goose, the predicted age ratios in Saskatchewan are 0.04 and 0.08, respectively. I feel really confident that they will be less than 0.1 gosling per adult, or stated another way, there should be <10% young in light goose flocks that originate in QMG this fall.

    We know that age ratios of both Snow and Ross’s geese, at both Karrak Lake and during fall migration through Saskatchewan, have been declining for the last almost 3 decades, but there has been virtually no production in 4 of the last 5 years (2015, 2016, 2018, 2019). As a result, the combined population of both species nesting at Karrak Lake has declined by over half in 6 years (from a high of almost 1.3 million in 2012, to 0.6 million in 2018…Dana Kellett and I don’t have the estimate yet for 2019, but it looks like another decline from 2018; I suspect that the entire midcontinent population might be in decline too).

    There has been some emigration from Karrak Lake, but a lot of the recent nose-dive in numbers of breeding birds there appears to be the result of really poor recruitment, with no evidence of declining adult survival so far. Much of the variation in late summer/fall age ratios is related to gosling survival between hatch and banding, which has been in decline over the years as well.

    So, overall, another tough year for decoying light geese, I suspect
     
    CSUguy likes this.
  10. swampstomper

    swampstomper Senior Refuge Member

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    Saw a report from a bander at Baffin that said the snows they caught had an average hatch at best. Also said that only a small percentage of the young snows were fledged and most were still in the downy stage.
     

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