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Nesting Conditions Update?

Discussion in 'Snow Goose Hunting Forum' started by CSUguy, Jun 18, 2019.

  1. mrmallerd

    mrmallerd Elite Refuge Member

    Sep 25, 2002
    southern illinois
    Seems I read somewhere that the hatch was later & an early cold snap could still have a negative effect on the fall flight, which I take, as the juvie migration will be delayed a week or two. Considering the above, should one want to target juvies, they might want to schedule their trip a couple weeks later than normal.
  2. Geez n Quackers

    Geez n Quackers Senior Refuge Member

    Mar 13, 2000
    Kansas City, MO
    Adding to the confusion, figures shown for MCP Snows are total population estimates, the others, are nesting estimates based on last year. For Ross it's nesting estimates for last year, and only at Karrak Lake; in light of the fact that other reports state Ross colonies are on the increase in the Eastern Arctic. So what are the hatch numbers, or even total population numbers? I don't think they are trying to assess that. Only trends in population up or down.
  3. rdj.olympia

    rdj.olympia Senior Refuge Member

    Aug 29, 2006
    Here is a recap of nesting success from another website.

    The official USFWS Waterfowl Population Status 2019 and light goose hatch report has been released. We’ll cut through the report and summarize the key points of the light goose status for 2019.

    While it does appear there were good breeding conditions and an average hatch across much of the light goose breeding areas, some colonies may have experienced delayed nesting, predation of the nests and broods, and cold, wet weather which can be very difficult for young goslings to survive.

    Overall it appears the fall flight will have more young birds than 2018, especially guys hunting the Pacific Flyway with the Wrangel Island birds. Hatch results and juvenile survival rates across the remaining areas will be hit-and-miss, and scouting will continue to be key to finding more cooperative flocks with better juvenile bird ratios. As always, the guys that put in the miles and the work will have success. Let’s get after it!

    Light Goose Hatch Report Summary:
    In 2019, spring phenology was earlier than average across much of Alaska and the eastern Arctic and Subarctic. Ice or snow cover on 2 June 2019 compared to the same date in 2018 was generally comparable in the central and western Arctic and Subarctic but less extensive in other areas (National Ice Center 2019).

    Biologists reported early spring phenology or good breeding conditions at Bylot, Bafn, Akimiski, Southampton, and Wrangel Islands, the Ungava Peninsula, and in southwestern Alaska; average conditions in northern Alaska and some areas of the central Arctic and Subarctic (Queen Maud Gulf and southwestern coast of Hudson Bay); and below-average conditions at Banks Island and some areas of the northwestern coast of Hudson Bay.

    * It’s important to remember breeding surveys and subsequent reports are not a sampling of the entire light goose population, not all breeding areas are surveyed, and not all surveys and reports are available at time of publication. Some data from previous years is used in the USFWS population estimates.

    Ross’s Geese
    • 2019 estimate -25% from 2018 // -6% 10 year trend (2018 numbers).
    • 2019 breeding population estimated at 337,000.
    Note: Years presented refer to year-1. Therefore the 2019 numbers are actually 2018’s numbers, and so forth. Official numbers are not available at the time of report.

    Ross Geese are are annually surveyed at Karrak Lake in the Queen Maud Gulf region.

    Ross’s geese nest primarily in the Queen Maud Gulf region, but increasing numbers are nesting in other areas of the central and eastern Arctic and along the western coast of Hudson Bay.

    Mid-continent Population
    • 2019 estimate -9% from 2018 // -3% 10-year trend (2017 numbers).
    • 2019 adult population estimated at 12,009,000 (2017 numbers).
    Note: Years presented refer to year-2. Therefore the 2019 numbers are actually 2017’s numbers. Official numbers are not available at the time of report.

    Western Arctic (Pacific Flyway)
    • 2019 estimate +4% from 2018 // +7% 10-year trend.
    • 2019 breeding population estimated at 1,414,000.
    Western Arctic lesser snow geese nest primarily on Banks Island, with smaller colonies in coastal areas of the Northwest Territories, and along the Alaskan Arctic Coastal Plain. WA lesser snow geese primarily winter in central and southern California, the western Central Flyway, and the northern highlands of Mexico. Light geese in the Pacific Flyway (Pacific Flyway Population) are indexed by fall and winter surveys in California, Oregon, Washington and British Columbia.

    Wrangel Island Lessers
    • 2019 estimate +45% from 2018 // +12% 10-year trend.
    • 2019 breeding population estimated at 442,000.
    Lesser snow geese in the Pacific Flyway originate from nesting colonies in the western and central Arctic and on Wrangel Island, Russia. Wrangel Island lesser snow geese nest on Wrangel Island. Western Arctic and Wrangel Island lesser snow geese mix during winter and also occur with MCP lesser snow geese and Ross’s geese. Wrangel Island lesser snow geese principally winter in the Skagit-Fraser River Deltas in British Columbia and Washington and in northern and central California.

    Greater Snow Geese
    • 2019 estimate -19% from 2018 // -2% 10-year trend
    • St. Lawrence Valley (Quebec) breeding population estimated at 714,000.
    Greater snow geese nest on Bylot, Axel Heiberg, Ellesmere, and Bafn Islands, and in Greenland, and winter along the Atlantic coast from New Jersey to North Carolina. This population is monitored on spring staging areas near the St. Lawrence Valley in Quebec by an annual aerial photographic survey.

    Read the full report here:
  4. Drakes Landing

    Drakes Landing Senior Refuge Member Supporting Member

    Jun 10, 2016
    Note: Years presented refer to year-2. Therefore the 2019 numbers are actually 2017’s numbers. Official numbers are not available at the time of report.

    This "Note" is extremely important IMO (Geez N Quackers referred to it above) as this population of breeding birds makes up 81% (12,009,000/14,900,000) of the overall white bird counts across the Continent. The Mid Continent Population migrates down the Central and Mississippi Flyways........those that really matter :)

    Now for those of you wishful thinkers like me (when it comes to Snow Geese) let's hope that MCP exploded with a similar trend (like Wrangel Island) with a +45% increase year over year 19 vs. 18. How about 5 million more young-uns trekking up and down the Central and Mississippi Flyways this coming Fall and Spring!!!!!

    Let the hype begin! If you are not guiding you should be......go buy 3 semi loads of full bodies and get your ads posted up on Craigslist. If things don't go as projected please PM me as I may have interest in some deeply discounted full body decoys!!! :flame

    Good luck.
    Dean Nelson, DaPutts and hunting1 like this.
  5. Dean Nelson

    Dean Nelson Moderator Goose Hunting/North Dakota Moderator

    Jun 12, 2002
    Bismarck North Dakota
    I mean flipping seriously how screwed up is it that we won't get the numbers of how many birds there are this year until not next year but the goddamn year after!:doh
  6. Blackduck

    Blackduck Senior Refuge Member

    Mar 28, 2000
    Dean, it takes a long time to count 12 to 15 million birds one at a time. Two years worth of time or so. :rolleyes:
  7. JRS

    JRS Elite Refuge Member

    Dec 4, 2013
    I’m just gonna take my Wrangel birds and shut up.
    Drakes Landing and Wareagle1 like this.
  8. CSUguy

    CSUguy Senior Refuge Member

    Sep 21, 2003
    Loveland, CO
    A few reports of white geese flocking up and flying from Churchill, MB and coastal west Alaska. Grey birds seen in those flocks. Subjective observation, but mildly encouraging nonetheless.

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