Theory on the non-war in Ukraine.

[widgeon]

This theory is at least plausible… not least because the Polish are just itching for an excuse to hand some Russians their azzes. You know, they still have some hard feelings about 45 years of Soviet domination.

There's an article out there about war games Poland held last year simulating a Russian invasion. Poland lost in a very short time. Without the US and NATO they'd be toast.

 

[BigSkyDuk]

There's an article out there about war games Poland held last year simulating a Russian invasion. Poland lost in a very short time. Without the US and NATO they'd be toast.

What did the war games say about Ukraine’s chances against Russia?

I think—much like during the Cold War when Western maps deliberately enlarged the Soviet Union—we have been giving the Russian military establishment too much credit. Their weapons are obsolete, their command structure is extremely fragile, their supply lines are heavily reliant on rail, and their troops are not the fire breathing killers from Red Dawn. With a similar level of Western resources as Ukraine is getting, I think Poland would have entirely eliminated a Russian invasion by now.

 

[widgeon]

What did the war games say about Ukraine’s chances against Russia?

I think—much like during the Cold War when Western maps deliberately enlarged the Soviet Union—we have been giving the Russian military establishment too much credit. Their weapons are obsolete, their command structure is extremely fragile, their supply lines are heavily reliant on rail, and their troops are not the fire breathing killers from Red Dawn. With a similar level of Western resources as Ukraine is getting, I think Poland would have entirely eliminated a Russian invasion by now.

That is the most prevalent opinion. Personally, I doubt that a country with the resources and technology to be a contender in the space race would have that inferior of a military. Time will tell I guess.

 

[BigSkyDuk]

That is the most prevalent opinion. Personally, I doubt that a country with the resources and technology to be a contender in the space race would have that inferior of a military. Time will tell I guess.

A leader in the space race 65 years ago.

A contender up to ~50 years ago.

Parity, more or less, for the next 30 years.

Selling us overpriced tickets to fund their program for the last decade. And now that show is over.

Like all Socialist/Communist countries they started with a whole bunch of other peoples’ money and burned through it as fast as humanly possible. Their only aircraft carrier is inoperable and nearly sank at the dock. What they were able to do in the late 50’s and early 60’s is totally irrelevant to their capabilities today. Who even knows the condition of their ballistic missile stock.

But China is loving this whole fiasco. Let Russia occupy the West’s imagination… never mind what we’re doing over here!

 

[Bclick]

You mean when the media does stupid stuff like this. Actual tweet. Not soldiers but paintball. So unless the Russian army is so bad it is getting defeated by paintballers?

Hard to trust the info out there for sure.

View attachment 341814

Mini grenades

 

[grahler]

What did the war games say about Ukraine’s chances against Russia?

I think—much like during the Cold War when Western maps deliberately enlarged the Soviet Union—we have been giving the Russian military establishment too much credit. Their weapons are obsolete, their command structure is extremely fragile, their supply lines are heavily reliant on rail, and their troops are not the fire breathing killers from Red Dawn. With a similar level of Western resources as Ukraine is getting, I think Poland would have entirely eliminated a Russian invasion by now.

I dunno I mean imagine you are allied with China, have the West in tough economic times, and are flush with a large stock of Cold War weaponry wasting away.
Plus you have health issues.
Maybe you’d say let’s use all this old crap to take Ukraine.

I’m not saying this is correct. I’m not supporting Russia or Putin, but they might be using up a bunch of old junk first.

Ukraine sadly looks to have surrendered Mariupol.

I don’t know if Fussia is using its best stuff.

If it is it’s a paper Tiger. It might be just a distraction from China retaking Taiwan though.

I don’t know.

 

[BigSkyDuk]

I dunno I mean imagine you are allied with China, have the West in tough economic times, and are flush with a large stock of Cold War weaponry wasting away.
Plus you have health issues.
Maybe you’d say let’s use all this old crap to take Ukraine.

I’m not saying this is correct. I’m not supporting Russia or Putin, but they might be using up a bunch of old junk first.

Ukraine sadly looks to have surrendered Mariupol.

I don’t know if Fussia is using its best stuff.

If it is it’s a paper Tiger. It might be just a distraction from China retaking Taiwan though.

I don’t know.

I suspect Putin’s failing health has a lot to do with this. Rebuilding the USSR has been his long term goal. Taking back Ukraine would be a big first step.

I don’t think China is their ally on anything but paper. China and Russia have decades old disputes, and didn’t even get along all that well during the Cold War. China is happy to let Russia distract us.

 

[Steelshot Scott]

As far as the theory that Poland is trying to trap Russia to bring in NATO, this is not a plausible theory. If you study history, you will find this is not plausible because Poland is more afraid that Russia will invade them and NATO will not back them up. Has happened before, ask Neville Chamberlain about it(I know that was pre-NATO, it is a statement about betrayal).. Poland might go into the Ukraine, but it would be a preemptive strike in their eyes. Putin has stated his desire to reunite the Soviet Union. He has stated his reasons that he is entitled to the Ukraine. He has stated he intends to bring Poland back behind the Iron Curtain.

Poland has a first rate military, they doubled it's size since the first invasion of Ukraine. While it is a fraction of the size of the Russian forces, it is well trained and well equipped. Poland spends 3% of it GDP on it's military and gives to NATO. They built their military up because they don't trust NATO to have their six o'clock. They live in constant fear of a Soviet return and they don't want to ever live as slaves again. Ukraine is beating the Soviets back, by themselves. If Poland went into Ukraine, it would drive out the Russians and end Putin's dreams of expansion. It would bring in Polish air power, the Russians don't control the skies now, guess what happens when enemy fighter planes and Polish anti-aircraft equipment show up.


It would not trigger a world war. It would not draw in NATO, it would not trigger Article 5, the United States would not be drawn in.

Russia is the bad guy here. Not because we have been taught "Russia Bad", but because their actions in this case are immoral. This was nothing more than Putin coveting Ukraine's warm water ports.

 

[tripper]

I suspect Putin’s failing health has a lot to do with this. Rebuilding the USSR has been his long term goal. Taking back Ukraine would be a big first step.

I don’t think China is their ally on anything but paper. China and Russia have decades old disputes, and didn’t even get along all that well during the Cold War. China is happy to let Russia distract us.

I too think his health may have a lot to do with the timing. He's never going to achieve his dream of gaining back the USSR but he might feel like taking Ukraine back before his demise will be his legacy.

 

[widgeon]

What did the war games say about Ukraine’s chances against Russia?

I think—much like during the Cold War when Western maps deliberately enlarged the Soviet Union—we have been giving the Russian military establishment too much credit. Their weapons are obsolete, their command structure is extremely fragile, their supply lines are heavily reliant on rail, and their troops are not the fire breathing killers from Red Dawn. With a similar level of Western resources as Ukraine is getting, I think Poland would have entirely eliminated a Russian invasion by now.

The Russians have been shooting down drones with laser weapons. I don't think they're showing their full potential. Yet.